The International Monetary Fund has signed off on another slice of El Salvador's loan program even though the country missed targets tied to Bitcoin accumulation. On October 1 the IMF's Executive Board completed the combined second and third reviews of El Salvador's 40-month Extended Fund Facility, which unlocks an immediate disbursement of SDR 101.96 million, or about $138 million, according to the IMF's press release.
The Fund granted waivers for the unmet performance criteria "based on strong corrective measures and renewed commitments," and it drew a clear line for the future: "No further Bitcoin accumulation is envisaged beyond the documented donations." In other words, El Salvador keeps its money flowing, but the state is not supposed to buy more Bitcoin with public funds while the program runs.
Why the reserve keeps growing anyway
This is where the story gets confusing for anyone watching the numbers. El Salvador's officially reported Bitcoin balance stood at 7,794.37 BTC on October 4, and it has been rising by exactly 1 BTC a day, from 7,783.37 on September 23 to today's figure, according to the balance history tracked by CorpStacking from the government's own disclosures. That is 11 BTC in 11 days.
The IMF's explanation is that documents supplied by Salvadoran authorities show those additions came from private donations rather than purchases financed with government money, as Cointelegraph detailed in its coverage of the review. Reuters, in a report carried by LSE Financial News, adds that the IMF wants greater transparency over all public-sector crypto holdings and says the state's involvement in crypto is being "unwound." So the reserve can keep ticking up on paper without the Fund treating it as a breach, as long as every coin is documented as a gift.
The money, in Bitcoin terms
We ran the numbers using the IMF's figures and a Bitcoin price of about $86,469, the October 4 snapshot from Basis Desk. Here are the inputs so you can check them.
| Item | Figure | How we got it |
|---|---|---|
| IMF tranche | About $138 million | SDR 101.96M at roughly $1.35 per SDR |
| Tranche as share of program | About 9.9% | $138M ÷ $1.4B total EFF |
| Bitcoin reserve value | About $674 million | 7,794.37 BTC × $86,469 |
| Tranche in Bitcoin terms | About 1,596 BTC | $138M ÷ $86,469 |
| Reserve vs. tranche | About 4.9 times larger | $674M ÷ $138M |
| Daily additions, last 11 days | About $951,000 | 11 BTC × $86,469 |
| Same pace for a full year | About $31.6 million | 365 BTC × $86,469 |
Two things jump out. First, the Bitcoin reserve is now worth almost five times this IMF payout, which helps explain why Bukele's government has been reluctant to let the Bitcoin story go. Second, if the 1 BTC a day pace kept up for a year, those donated coins would add roughly $31.6 million at today's price, close to a quarter of this tranche. That's why future reviews will lean so heavily on documentation, because the Fund is effectively vouching for where every one of those coins came from.
How we got here
The IMF approved the $1.4 billion facility in February 2025, with ring-fencing of Bitcoin as one of its conditions. In November 2025, El Salvador said it had added 1,090 BTC worth about $100 million, an implied price near $91,700 per coin that sits above today's price, and that announcement renewed questions about whether the country was sticking to the deal. In July 2026, the IMF said the total held across government-owned wallets was unchanged and consistent with the program. The two sides then reached a staff-level agreement on September 3, which the board formally approved on October 1. Along the way, the government transferred majority ownership and control of the Chivo wallet to a private operator while keeping a minority stake and custodial duties, and the IMF says any remaining public exposure should be fully unwound.
The Fund also credited El Salvador with stronger-than-expected growth, progress on fiscal transparency and anti-money-laundering rules, and comfortably met reserve targets, according to Reuters and CryptoSlate. Still on the to-do list are possible amendments to the Digital Asset Issuance Law and the pension and civil service changes that were delayed.
What it means if you hold Bitcoin
Our view: don't read this as a buying signal. El Salvador was never a big enough buyer to move the market, and this review locks in the opposite of a sovereign buying spree, since new state-funded purchases are off the table while the program runs. What the waiver does show is that the IMF would rather manage El Salvador's Bitcoin experiment through disclosure rules than blow up a $1.4 billion program over it. If you follow sovereign Bitcoin adoption, the things to watch are the next program review, how the remaining Chivo exposure gets unwound, and whether the daily balance increases keep coming with documentation the Fund accepts.
Source: IMF press release; Reuters via LSE Financial News; Cointelegraph; CryptoSlate; balance data from CorpStacking.